OCTOBER 2026
AI Can Find the Opportunity. The Work Still Has to Get Done.
Private equity is putting real capital behind procurement and supply-chain technology. Thoma Bravo took Coupa private in an $8 billion transaction, TPG Growth invested $235 million in Sayari, and EQT acquired Avetta in a deal reported at roughly $3 billion.
The investment trend is real. So is the risk of confusing better visibility with realized value.
FEATURED FORSYTH PERSPECTIVE
AI vs AI
AI is changing procurement, but not every task is best solved with more automation. For middle-market companies, the stronger operating model may be using people for the messy work that requires persistence and judgment — and AI for the information volumes people could never efficiently manage on their own.
PE Is Putting Real Money Behind Procurement Technology
The thesis behind these investments is easy to understand. Better technology can analyze more supplier data, identify risk faster, improve spend visibility and surface sourcing opportunities that would take teams considerably longer to find manually.
That can be valuable, especially to stakeholders.
AI Works Best Where Scale Is the Problem
AI has a clear advantage when the challenge is processing more information than a sourcing team could reasonably manage.
It can help monitor commodity markets, tariff changes, supplier announcements, freight movements and regulatory developments. It can also accelerate spend analysis, supplier identification, contract review and price-variance analysis.
A category manager cannot manually track thousands of data points every day. AI can.
Automation Gets Harder When Suppliers Get Involved
Many procurement activities look simple on a process map: send the purchase order, obtain the acknowledgement, confirm the promise date and update the ERP.
The reality is messier.
One supplier responds through a portal. Another sends a PDF. Another changes the delivery date without explaining why. Another ignores three emails until someone calls.
People and AI Solve Different Problems
AI can process information at a scale people cannot. People remain better suited to work that requires supplier interaction, judgment and persistence.
For tactical purchasing, lower-cost remote support may be better suited to following up on acknowledgements, late orders and shipment status, while AI monitors markets, risk and large datasets.
The right answer is not always more automation.
Identified Opportunity Is Still Not EBITDA
AI can flag a pricing gap, identify supplier concentration or suggest an alternate source. None of those outcomes are savings yet.
The supplier still has to be qualified. The economics still have to be validated. Engineering and operations may need to approve the change. Negotiations have to occur, implementation has to happen and the financial impact has to reach the P&L.
That is the gap between intelligence and execution.
Forsyth’s Checklist
- Treat AI-generated opportunities as hypotheses until commercially validated.
- Use AI where information volume is the constraint.
- Use people where supplier interaction and exception handling dominate.
- Evaluate the full cost of automation, including integration and exception handling.
- Measure success by implemented P&L impact, not opportunities identified.
Our view is straightforward: AI will make sourcing teams faster and more informed. It will not eliminate the work required to turn an opportunity into a result.
EBITDA improvements cannot be captured without EXECUTION.
OCTOBER WATCHLIST
What We're Watching in October
A few developments worth keeping on the procurement radar:
U.S.–China tariffs: The two countries recommended more favorable tariff treatment for $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction. Read more
Critical minerals: China’s rare-earth export restrictions remain a sourcing risk for automotive, electronics and other exposed categories. Read more
Oil and diesel: Elevated energy prices could continue to pressure freight, logistics and energy-intensive inputs. Read more
Global shipping: Red Sea uncertainty and Asian port disruptions remain potential sources of delay and added cost. Read more
North American trade: New U.S. restrictions on certain Canadian imports add another variable for cross-border supply chains. Read more
UPCOMING EVENT
Beyond Cost Savings
Procurement can do more than save money. On November 4, join Forsyth Advisors for Beyond Cost Savings: Turning Procurement into a Strategic Driver of Business Performance, a practical discussion on how procurement, finance and operations can work together to improve cost, cash, resilience and supplier risk while turning the supply chain into an engine for profitable growth.
