September 2026 · Market update
Purchasing Power Is Splitting by Category
Purchasing power is no longer moving in one direction. Suppliers hold more leverage in constrained, tariff-exposed categories, while buyers retain meaningful negotiating power in standardized products and weaker regional markets. The sourcing opportunity is to stop treating inflation as one market and manage leverage category by category.
01 SUPPLIER LEVERAGE
Protect Supply, but Challenge the Economics
U.S. industrial suppliers continue to hold a stronger hand in categories such as steel, aluminum, copper-intensive products, electrical components, memory and semiconductors. August ISM data showed elevated pricing and slower supplier deliveries, but fewer respondents reported paying higher prices than in July—evidence that supplier leverage is concentrated, not universal.
02 TARIFFS
Challenge What Actually Belongs in the Price
New Section 301 actions and country-specific duties are becoming a structural part of supplier pricing discussions. But tariff exposure varies materially by product, origin, exemption and content rules, making blanket surcharges increasingly difficult to justify.
03 PACKAGING & FREIGHT
Announced Increases Are Opening Positions
Containerboard producers have proposed significant September price increases, but August market pricing remained unchanged and some buyers reported lower pricing. Freight is similarly mixed: global container rates remain elevated, but lane-level movements are diverging.
04 REGIONAL SOURCING
Buyer Leverage Still Exists
Not every market is supplier-led. Brazil’s manufacturing sector weakened materially in August, while smaller Chinese manufacturers also showed softer demand and faster supplier deliveries. Europe and ASEAN remain healthier but still provide diversification opportunities in selected categories.
Put the signals to work
Forsyth’s Checklist
- Classify major categories as supplier-led, contested or buyer-led.
- Validate tariff and surcharge exposure before accepting price increases.
- Separate material, conversion, freight, tariff and margin components.
- Test packaging and freight increases against actual market conditions.
- Qualify alternative suppliers where regional weakness creates leverage.
Our view is straightforward: Inflation is no longer one market. Purchasing power must be managed category by category.
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